Sunday, January 28, 2007

Just in time for the political season, CivicSpace ramps up its offerings

CivicSpace cut its teeth on the Howard Dean campaign, in which it used Drupal to power community sites that supported the campaign. (Drupal's a good open source CMS; we use it to power the CWRL's sites too.) Now, CivicSpace LLC is "a for profit social enterprise dedicating to providing all nonprofits and civic groups an affordable, ubiquitous and powerful toolkit to create social change on the web." That is, if you want to run a campaign (and it is getting to be that season), promote an issue, or establish a community for your nonprofit, CivicSpace combines open source software with its own service and expertise to support your work. More precisely:
CivicSpace continues to offer turn-key site creation services. For a low fixed fee, we will conduct a written needs assessment, configure your website & supporter database, import website content and supporters, and deliver a quality look and feel for your site. All you have to do is tell us what you want, we do the rest.
The above doesn't come from CivicSpace's site, it comes from an email blast I received from them this morning. It also says:

We are happy to announce the open public release of the CivicSpace On Demand service, offering a complete, integrated solution for your community website, online donations, blast email, and supporter database needs.

Based on your past interest in our services, we'd love it if you would be among our first customers to get Groundswell Professional, an integrated fundraising, email, website and database solution at $50 per month with your first 30 days free.

What's Groundswell, you ask?
Groundswell professional is the easiest way to get the world class Drupal content management system integrated with the only open source constituent relationship management system, CiviCRM.
I find this to be really intriguing for a couple of reasons. One is that CivicSpace is offering a service very similar to the "conversational marketing" discussed below, but in the civic rather than the commercial sphere. I wonder how much overlap in expertise there is between the two spheres. The other is that CivicSpace seems to be a classic example of what open source enthusiasts have long argued: that when you open-source your software, you make back your money with services.

Conversational marketing -- and a strange email I got this morning

MediaVillage has a feature on "conversational marketing," a kind of, sort of new approach to word-of-mouth marketing through social media:
Conversational Marketing, explains Troja, "is the marketing strategy of connecting directly to the marketplace through online conversation. It is a direct and completely transparent interaction with customers, potential customers, brand fans and brand detractors. The conversation," he says, "is initiated through ad units in blogs, Internet forums, social networking sites, message boards and any other forum that features two-way conversation. It allows people to talk about themselves in relation to a marketer's products."
Your online identity can become entangled with the products you adore. If you like talking about a product anyway and you show loyalty, the company might as well leverage that to create new marketing opportunities -- right? One of the pathbreakers in conversational marketing is Ford, but pathbreaking is often challenging:
"Of course, the challenge is now to ensure Ford engages in a meaningful dialogue…, Hespos adds. "They need to have Ford bloggers at the ready to respond to comments and address everything that gets brought up in the 'Community Buzz' section of the Ford Bold Moves site and elsewhere on the Internet. Already from blog comments, I can see that some people are skeptical as to whether Ford is really listening and whether they're prepared to engage in real dialogue."
"Ford bloggers" is an interesting concept. How do you encourage a community to form without astroturfing it? Well, that brings me to a strange email I got this morning:
Dear blog author:

We recently came across your site, spinuzzi.blogspot.com, while searching for bloggers who blog about Ford issues.

A small group of us have started a new site called Ford Bloggers . Our intent is to bring Ford bloggers closer together, and make a positive contribution to the Internet community.

Would you be interested in joining Ford Bloggers ? Please take a few minutes to have a look at what we are trying to do, and if you are interested, there is a sign up page to get the ball rolling. We would greatly appreciate your support in this endeavour.

If you do not feel that your blog would be a good fit for Ford Bloggers , but enjoy this subject area, come visit us and one of our member bloggers. You can also check our FAQ Section to learn more about Ford Bloggers .

We look forward to hearing from you and seeing you on Ford Bloggers .

(I removed the embedded Javascript from the links above.)

I think this was precipitated because I wrote a post on the Volt a while back -- pretty thin grounds for contacting me with this sort of offer. Is this site a result of Ford's marketing arm? Perhaps -- but probably not. I googled the name of the author, Craig Cantin, and found out that he's sent out practically identical emails for Christian bloggers and Green bloggers. Cantin also has his own Blogger blog, which describes him as "a social conservative with a green conscience." So is he a profiteer? An enthusiast with many enthusiasms? A marketeer? I find the whole thing to be fascinating.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

"in Gingrich's world consumer health care should look more like Travelocity...."

That's Nina Eason, quoted in Dan Drezner's post on Newt Gingrich's possible presidential bid, with the perfectly succinct summation of how Gingrich wants to handle policy with low-friction technological solutions. I predict that Gingrich will not run for president, but will want a policymaking role in another candidate's campaign.

danieldrezner.com :: Daniel W. Drezner :: I'm intrigued -- does that means he's doomed?

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Not content with this universe, perhaps Google will create another one

TechCrunch reports a rumor that Google will use Google Earth and Google Sketch to launch a SecondLife competitor. As Jeff Jarvis noted yesterday, SL has a very high attrition rate, so the market may be ripe for a high-powered competitor.

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Open source studying -- or cheating?

Reporting from Davos, Jeff Jarvis tells this anecdote:
Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook, told what he called a random story — it’s a perfect tale for the medium and the age — about empowering collaboration. His sophomore year at Harvard, while starting his company, he failed to study at all for one of his courses; he didn’t even go to class. So days before the final, he pulled all the pictures he needed to analyze off the web and put them up on a page online with boxes underneath. He emailed the class and said he’d put up a study guide. Sure enough, in moments, the students filled in their essential knowledge on the art. Zuckerberg got an A. And the prof told him that the grades in the class improved 10 percent over previous years.

BuzzMachine » Blog Archive » Davos07: Media notes

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Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Iraq playing cards and mediation

I'm discussing Vygotsky's insights on mediation in class today, and preparing for the lecture reminded me of the infamous playing cards that the US military issued troops after the Iraq invasion. See this picture of the cards from a random Flickr set.

What reminded me was that -- despite the message many took away from the deck, that capturing the Iraqi leadership was a "game" -- these playing decks present a strong example of what Vygotsky meant by mediation. In Mind in Society Ch. 3, he talks about how adolescents used colored cards to keep track of which colors they had used in a game as well as which colors were "forbidden." I imagine that these cards were used in much the same way by some troops, with captured leaders being removed from the deck. On the other hand, they were also used as playing cards, and in that capacity they allowed military work to infiltrate even the sparse leisure activities enjoyed by the soldiers. And I suppose that reminds us that mediation is a sociocultural phenomenon, and as such is never far from ideology.

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SecondLife at Davos

Jeff Jarvis is characteristically smart in reporting from Davos07. This bit about SecondLife caught my eye, partially because of the sharp attrition rate in SL and partially because of the prediction about what's on the horizon: haptic interfaces.

At this morning’s session, John Markoff admits that he hasn’t gotten past the opening and I admit I have not either. It’s small. They have 334,000 “regular visitors,” Kirkpatrick says - though that’s only people who come back after a month while 2.6 million have come and most, like Markoff and me, give up. But Gage makes an eloquent case for the virtual-world interface making a big difference in the future architecture, medicine, education, entertainment. “The moment that the haptic interface works in Second Life, it is going to double and double again…” Mitch Kapor, chairman of the Second Life parent, says that a haptic interface — that is, the ability to feel something virtual in the real world — is months away.

BuzzMachine » Blog Archive » Davos07: Beyond Web 2.0

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Astroturfing Wikipedia

In Battleground Wikipedia, Michael Arrington calls out Microsoft for recently trying to astroturf Wikipedia: faced with pages on OpenOffice standards written largely by the competition at IBM, with what were believed to be factual errors, a Microsoft employee attempted to pay an Australian blogger to change the pages in Microsoft's errors. When the issue came out, people were of course appalled.

I'm surprised at my sympathy for Microsoft (see the original story), but nevertheless the behavior violates the emergent principles for interaction on Wikipedia and social networking sites more generally. Someone should do a thesis (and probably has already done one) on how these interaction principles are emerging and how they conflict with the old command-and-control PR at which Microsoft is so adept.

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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

More on representations

Via Instapundit, Jules Crittenden writes the State of the Union speech that he thinks President Bush should give. Readers of the former incarnation of this blog may remember that Ariana Huffington did the same for Ned Lamont. It's not really a favor: Such speeches are of course a way for the (real) writer to tell off people who don't agree with them, while evading the responsibility of leadership -- the responsibility of forging consensus and coalitions (as well as maintaining decorum).

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Has your identity been stolen?

If you've been wondering that, TechCrunch points to a service that can help you find out.

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China takes down Marxists.org?

China nukes Marxists.org is the headline over at BoingBoing. Marxists.org, if you haven't been there, is an extensive compedium of Marxist writings, including Marx, Engels, Vygotsky, Ilyenkov, Mao, and others. It's not clear, of course, who is actually perpetrating the attack -- below the headline, it just says that the attacks are originating "within China." Either way, I hope they stop: this compedium is useful for Marxists and non-Marxists alike.

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USA!

Althouse notes that Baraboo High School bans the "U.S.A., U.S.A." chant. Why? Because the students are using the acronym to mean something very different.

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Evolving MMOG

Bonnie Nardi mourns changes in World of Warcraft.

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Friday, January 19, 2007

Off the grid

Strizki runs the 3,000-square-foot house with electricity generated by a 1,000-square-foot roof full of photovoltaic cells on a nearby building, an electrolyzer that uses the solar power to generate hydrogen from water, and a number of hydrogen tanks that store the gas until it is needed by the fuel cell.In the summer, the solar panels generate 60 percent more electricity than the super-insulated house needs. The excess is stored in the form of hydrogen which is used in the winter -- when the solar panels can't meet all the domestic demand -- to make electricity in the fuel cell. Strizki also uses the hydrogen to power his fuel-cell driven car, which, like the domestic power plant, is pollution-free.

Solar power eliminates utility bills in U.S. home - Yahoo! News

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Client-side editing

Remove excessive exclamation points with Greasemonkey:
With this script installed, trim down any instance of multiple exclamation points down to a single point!!!

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The distribution of surveillance: Not just for authority figures anymore

On Wednesday, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said in his State of the City Address that the city plans to install new technology so that 911 call centers can receive digital images and videos sent from cell phones and computers."If you see a crime in progress or a dangerous building condition you'll be able to transmit images to 911 or online to NYC.gov," he said.

New York to use cell phone photographers to help fight crime | CNET News.com

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Wrike: Distributed project management software

Wrike is a web-based project management service that competes with Basecamp and others in this area. The big news here is that it allows you to assign tasks by tagging, meaning that the same task can show up in different projects. Also, you can email Wrike along with the people to whom you want to assign a task, and Wrike will set up a task and make those people responsible.

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"I don't think America likes to watch people be ridiculed"

... said Rosie O'Donnell on 'The View', blasting American Idol -- which debuted to record ratings.


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Wednesday, January 17, 2007

"anything below an IQ of 110 is problematic"

In today's OpinionJournal, Charles Murray argues that too many people are going to college:

There is no magic point at which a genuine college-level education becomes an option, but anything below an IQ of 110 is problematic. If you want to do well, you should have an IQ of 115 or higher. Put another way, it makes sense for only about 15% of the population, 25% if one stretches it, to get a college education. And yet more than 45% of recent high school graduates enroll in four-year colleges. Adjust that percentage to account for high-school dropouts, and more than 40% of all persons in their late teens are trying to go to a four-year college--enough people to absorb everyone down through an IQ of 104.

I think that it does make sense to boost vocational training as an alternative to four-year colleges, but tying the argument to IQ is not a good idea, since standardized tests such as IQ tests are not a good predictor of college success. Murray also expresses a lot of faith in "advances in technology [that] are making the brick-and-mortar facility increasingly irrelevant" such as lectures on DVD.

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"Just find an entrenched business. Then eat their lunch as they watch, paralyzed."

Michael Arrington tells entrepreneurs how to take market share away from the big players.

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Reading :: Rhetoric and Poetics in Antiquity

Rhetoric and Poetics in Antiquity
By Jeffrey Walker


Jeff Walker, who is one of my colleagues here at UT, is well known in the field of classical rhetoric. I can see why. This book lucidly and concisely makes the case that rhetoric and poetics emerged together, or to put it differently, that rhetoric encompasses poetics and that a solely pragmatic understanding of rhetoric doesn't fit how rhetoric was developed or used in antiquity. Separating rhetoric from poetics, he says, is sort of like separating business and technical writing from the rest of English, then referring to the entire field of English as "business writing" (pp.33-34). That is to say, a pragmatic subfield has been allowed to stand as the entire field, and the result has been no little confusion.

Part of that confusion is that rhetoric has been thought to have "declined" during the Hellenistic and Roman periods, even though rhetoric clearly developed in the legal arena during that period. This confusion stems from the fact that scholars have assumed rhetoric thrives only in a democracy. But, Walker says, this gets the causal relationship backwards: it's not that rhetoric is made possible by democracy, but democracy is made possible by rhetoric (p.134).

Another part of the confusion is that "the idea that poetry in general and lyric poetry in particular 'makes arguments' has typically been foreign, even counterintuitive, for Western literary-criticial thought for most of the twentieth century" (p.168) -- something that seems completely bizarre to me, but I'll have to take Jeff's word for it. Jeff does a stellar job of demonstrating that lyric poets did in fact make arguments grounded in their sociocultural environments. Along the way, he explores the notion of the enthymeme, demonstrating that the enthymeme is not a truncated syllogism (in the Toulmin mode), but rather an antistrophos (differing sister) (pp.170-171). Walker comes down hard on modern efforts to teach enthymemes here, and I'm not quite willing to agree that the conventional way of understanding enthymemes "have had little impact on the actual teaching of practical argumentation in modern times" (p.170) -- I've had success using these sorts of enthymemes as heuristics to help students shape arguments, and so have others, judging from the wide use of Toulmin logic in the composition classroom -- but I agree with the larger point that such heuristics aren't in themselves sufficient for teaching argumentation.

In any case, I learned a lot from this book, and I wish I had read it before my recent reading of Aristotle. I've said it before, but I'll say it again: what a pleasure it is being on such a well-rounded and accomplished faculty.

Seven accessibility mistakes

456 Berea Street presents seven accessibility mistakes you don't want to make.

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Austin's ice and snow; distributed expertise

So the city of Austin has been shut down since Monday (MLK Day) due to icy conditions. How icy? Oh, not terribly:


This light dusting of snow -- the first I've seen in my five years in Austin -- doesn't look like a big deal, does it? Certainly it's nothing compared to what I saw in my five years in Iowa, where this level of snow and ice would be trivial. But everyone's staying indoors: schools and businesses are closed.

That's not because Texans lack fortitude. Before moving to Iowa, I would have simply agreed that Texans don't know how to drive in icy conditions, since we don't get them that often. That's true, but it's much less of a factor than you may think. The big difference between, say, Austin and Ames is that Ames has had to invest in the infrastructure for dealing with these driving conditions: snowplows, de-icers, etc. When we lived in Iowa, the moment flakes started hitting the ground, a road crew was out there. Due in large part to them, I found myself quickly becoming an "Iowa driver," which is to say that the winter driving expertise I had always attributed to Northern drivers had to do more with this infrastructure than with the individual driver.

But for Austin, where we go years without even a light dusting like this one, it doesn't make sense to invest in that sort of infrastructure. The price we pay is that every once in a while the city gets shut down.

To make it worse, since the temperature is so close to the freezing point, the ice keeps melting, refreezing, melting, and refreezing. It just gets slicker and slicker. In Iowa, it just dropped way below freezing in October and didn't come back up until April.

To give you an idea of how big this shift is, we were walking around in shorts last week and the plants thought it was spring:


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Tuesday, January 16, 2007

In search of how societies work

Here's the abstract from what looks like a really interesting working paper. The author, David Ronfeldt, coedited a collection on netwar recently.

RAND | Working Papers | IN SEARCH OF HOW SOCIETIES WORK: Tribes — The First and Forever Form

The latest in a string of efforts to develop a theoretical framework about social evolution, based on how people develop their societies by using four forms of organization — tribes, hierarchical institutions, markets, and networks — this installment focuses on the tribal form. The tribal form was the first to emerge and mature, beginning thousands of years ago. Its main dynamic is kinship, which gives people a distinct sense of identity and belonging-the basic elements of culture, as manifested still today in matters ranging from nationalism to fan clubs. This report provides a lead-off chapter that sketches the entire framework, plus a “rethinking” chapter that shows why David Ronfeldt thinks that social evolution revolves around four forms of organization. A chapter then traces the evolution of tribes and clans, and the final chapter describes modern manifestations of the tribal form. An appendix reprints three op-ed pieces that sprang from Ronfeldt’s efforts to understand the tribal form and its continuing relevance. Ronfeldt maintains that societies advance by learning to use and combine all four forms, in a preferred progression. What ultimately matters is how the forms are added and how well they function together. They are not substitutes for each other; they are complements. Historically, a society’s advance — its progress — depends on its ability to use all four forms and combine them into a coherent, well-balanced, well-functioning whole. Essentially monoform tribal/clan societies and biform chiefdoms and clan-states, some dressed in the trappings of nation-states and capitalist economies, remain a ruling reality in vast areas of the world. It therefore behooves analysts and strategists who mostly think about states and markets to gain a better grip on roles the tribal form plays in both national development and national security.

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"Mr. Gates is leading in the wrong direction"

A TCS Daily column lays out the case for a smaller, leaner, more Rumsfeldian military suitable for fighting netwar:
Mr. Gates is leading in the wrong direction. Rather than reinforcing failure, what the U.S. government should be learning from Iraq is a new way to fight its wars. Instead of using massed legacy American forces, the U.S. should move to a model that employs highly-trained U.S. teams either working in a distributed fashion to identify enemy targets, or as advisors to local allies and proxies.

Rumsfeld and Powell may have both left the administration, but their argument continues.

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Communicative Practices in Workplaces and the Professions

Mark Zachry and Charie Thralls' edited collection Communicative Practices in Workplaces and the Professions is coming out soon. The Introduction is online. This is going to be a really solid and interesting book, and I'm not just saying that because I have a chapter.

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Workshop on HCI and Information Design

Mike Albers is hosting what looks to be a really interesting Workshop on HCI and Information Design to Communicate Complex Information. The superlative Barbara Mirel is keynoting.

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Five more GTD systems

On What's the Next Action, a follow-up post called 5 GTD systems I should be using someday...maybe.

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Monday, January 15, 2007

Reading :: Counterinsurgency

Counterinsurgency
By David H. Petraeus and James F. Amos


Published in December 2006, the US Armed Forces Counterinsurgency Manual is meant to provide an updated field manual for counterinsurgency operations. Coauthored by Major General David Petraeus, who is about to take over as commander in Iraq, the manual was clearly written with recent events in Afghanistan and Iraq in mind. As the authors say in the Foreword:
A counterinsurgency campaign is, as described in this manual, a mix of offensive, defensive, and stability operations conducted along multiple lines of operations. It requires Soldiers and Marines to employ a mix of familiar combat tasks and skills more often associated with nonmilitary agencies.
And, strikingly: "Soldiers and Marines are expected to be nation builders as well as soldiers." Clearly this manual, which is publicly available and surely politically vetted, reflects the huge changes that have taken place since then-Gov. Bush declared in the 2000 campaign that the armed forces should not be nation-builders. Now, according to the manual, the armed forces must do many things that they have not traditionally done, including controlling the messages and narratives that circulate in and about the occupied territory. And that's what really interests me about the manual: in counterinsurgency (COIN), rhetoric is a central concern -- although not under that name -- and rhetorical concerns are integrated thoroughly into all aspects of the manual.

Of course, a field manual that is released onto the Internet for anyone to read is obviously going to be part of that effort as well. So of course the manual stresses persuasion, message, and narrative in terms of honesty and truth, not in terms of propaganda. This is probably a sanitized version. Nevertheless, it's still a legitimate, widely used document, and therefore useful for understanding counterinsurgency in general and current events in Iraq in particular.

So let's look at the rhetorical aspects of the manual. (If you want a military strategist's take on it, Ralph Peters' review was recommended to me.) We'll start by defining counterinsurgency:
Joint doctrine defines an insurgency as an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict (JP 1-02). Stated another way, an insurgency is an organized, protracted politico-military struggle designed to weaken the control and legitimacy of an established government, occupying power, or other political authority while increasing insurgent control. Counterinsurgency is military, paramilitary, political, economic, psychological, and civic actions taken by a government to defeat insurgency (JP 1- 02).
Notice that insurgency and counterinsurgency are both related to establishing and weakening legitimacy, and this is done in a variety of ways, including violence but also charity, public works, and information control. In fact,
The information environment is a critical dimension of such internal wars, and insurgents attempt to shape it to their advantage. One way they do this is by carrying out activities, such as suicide attacks, that may have little military value but create fear and uncertainty within the populace and government institutions. These actions are executed to attract high-profile media coverage or local publicity and inflate perceptions of insurgent capabilities. Resulting stories often include insurgent fabrications designed to undermine the government’s legitimacy. (p.1-3)
And, grimly, the authors continue:
Insurgents have an additional advantage in shaping the information environment. Counterinsurgents seeking to preserve legitimacy must stick to the truth and make sure that words are backed up by deeds; insurgents, on the other hand, can make exorbitant promises and point out government shortcomings, many caused or aggravated by the insurgency. Ironically, as insurgents achieve more success and begin to control larger portions of the populace, many of these asymmetries diminish. That may produce new vulnerabilities that adaptive counterinsurgents can exploit. (p.1-3)
So the authors detail a variety of ways that either side can use to mobilize popular support, including persuasion, coercion, reaction to abuses, foreign support, and apolitical motivations (p.1-8). Each of these is methodically explored in the manual. For instance, the authors go to some length on how insurgencies are typically oriented around ideologies expressed through a narrative, "an organizational scheme expressed in story form" (p.1-14), and discuss how to destabilize these narratives while constructing other narratives to serve the counterinsurgency. Cultural and social aspects are discussed as well (and the manual has an entire appendix on social network analysis).

Intelligence is of course important to counterinsurgency, so the authors look at a variety of intelligence sources, including "open source intelligence [, which] is information of potential intelligence value that is available to the general public" (p.3-2), as well as standards such as signals intelligence.

In Chapter 4, the authors talk about designing counterinsurgency campaigns and operations. I was interested to see that they actually include a case study of iterative design (p.4-7), with a methodology that bears some resemblance to those we use in interface design, but for a very different purpose.

But back to rhetoric. In Chapter 5, the authors provide a lengthy discussion of how to conduct information operations, including advice such as "choose words carefully"; "publicize insurgent violence and the use of terror to discredit the insurgency"; "admit mistakes ... quickly"; and "highlight successes of the host-nation government and counterinsurgents promptly" (p.5-9). These guidelines are each accompanied by a paragraph of description elaborating on how they interact with other aspects of the counterinsurgency operation. That is, they're not just good rules of thumb, they're integrated into a larger operational design. And they must be broadly disseminated because, as Chapter 7 argues, leadership has to be distributed at lower levels than is typically the case in order for counterinsurgency forces to react swiftly. (For more on this separation of command and control, see my review of Alberts and Hayes' Power to the Edge.) In counterinsurgency, that is, every unit is a rhetor and every action is evidence that builds the case for the government's legitimacy and the insurgency's illegitimacy. Counterinsurgency is a legal and political argument made to the populace.

Reading :: The Age of Spiritual Machines

The Age of Spiritual Machines
By Ray Kurzweil

In one part of his popular futurist book The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil contemplates spiritual experiences, which are currently the provenance of human beings but which, he says, will eventually occur in the intelligent machines we will create. "Spritual experiences are not all of the same sort," he points out, "but appear to encompass a broad range of mental phenomena. The ecstatic dancing of a Baptist revival appears to be a different phenomenon than the quiet transcendence of a Buddhist monk" (p.151).

A dancing Baptist? Apparently Kurzweil is not that familiar with Baptists!

I bring up this point not to be an ankle-biter, but to illustrate what I think is a recurring problem with the book. Although Kurzweil is intelligent and widely read, I don't think he spends much time with the details. In person, I imagine him to be the kind of guy who excitedly finishes your sentences, and doesn't notice that he's finishing them in ways that you never would. The details, of which there are many, serve to propel the overall narrative rather than to constrain it.

And what's the narrative? We get a sense in the first chapters, in which Kurzweil postulates teleological laws of the universe. He notes that major milestones in the development of the universe seem to be spreading out: it took trillionths of a second after the Big Bang for gravity and subparticles to emerge, about a minute for atomic nuclei to form, and 300,000 years for those nuclei to capture electrons, etc. On the other hand, evolution's rate increases exponentially, with evolutionary milestones happening at shorter and shorter intervals. On these two curves, he maps Moore's Law, the exponential increase in computing power, as well as the fast pace of milestones reached by a developing human fetus. From all of this, he extrapolates a universal law that guarantees and compels technoevolutionary change, the Law of Accelerating Returns:

Moore's Law came along in 1958 just when it was needed and will have done its sixty years of service by 2018, a rather long period of time for a paradigm nowadays. Unlike Moore's Law, however, the Law of Accelerating Returns is not a temporary methodology. It is a basic attribute of the nature of time and chaos -- a sublaw of the Law of Time and Chaos -- and describes a wide range of apparently divergent phenomena and trends. In accordance with the Law of Accelerating Returns, another computational technology will pick up where Moore's Law will have left off, without missing a beat. (p.33)
Got that? Kurzweil has selected arbitrary milestones out of a much larger set of possible milestones, noted an apparent pattern, named that pattern a Law, and used it to make confident predictions about technological development. This is the same sort of reasoning that underpins numerology and some conspiracy theories. Like numerologists and conspiracy theorists, Kurzweil is very intelligent and very good at finding patterns, but not so good at recognizing when those patterns emerge from overly selective filtering of data points.

Treating the Law of Accelerating Returns as a proven law or destiny, Kurzweil then goes on to demonstrate that this Law will inevitably lead to intelligent machines -- machines that are each more intelligent than all human brains combined by 2060 -- and to argue that this change is the natural result of human evolution.

Kurzweil also makes the assumption that cognition goes on entirely inside the skull, an assumption that drives his predictions about machine intelligence, since in that case all one has to do is to reproduce the computational power of the brain. To be fair, many cognitivists rely on this same assumption. But sociocognitivist and postcognitivist perspectives (such as distributed and situated cognition) present some sharp critiques of this assumption.

The result is entertaining science fiction, but not convincing futurism.

Discarded GTD systems

What's the Next Action talks about 5 GTD systems I stopped using and why.

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The Ford Airstream, straight out of the blister pack

Via Slashdot, AutoblogGreen describes the Ford Airstream concept. I think I saw this once in a Hot Wheels 10-pack:

Anyway. The Airstream is actually developed in conjunction with Airstream, the company that makes the shiny mobile home trailers. This particular vehicle is a gas/hydrogen hybrid with the hydrogen parts made by Ballard. The drivetrain appears to be the "skateboard" configuration they've been developing.

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The death of privacy, continued

This weekend saw a flurry of stories about how easy it is for us to take and share video of each other, with the predictable result of destabilizing carefully constructed public images. Here are two out of many.

  • Next, Instapundit links to a story by Patrick Hynes, John McCain's blog guy, about video clips and responses in politics. 
Now that we have cheap video cameras on us all the time (e.g., the ones built into our phones), and an infrastructure that can distribute them easily and cheaply (e.g., YouTube and Flickr), it's trivial to execute these sorts of gotchas.

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Netwar and Google Earth

Slashdot reports:

"British news reports say insurgents are using Google Earth to pinpoint vulnerable targets within bases in Iraq. Could Google be doing more to prevent this? Should they be doing more? They certainly could explain more."


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Friday, January 12, 2007

The Universal Service Fund -> free international calls

That's certainly not what the USF is for, but one enterprising person in Iowa is using it that way, according to a scheme described by Michael Arrington on TechCrunch:
Here’s my understanding of how this works: the founder created his own telephone company in Iowa. Iowa is apparently the only state taking advantage of an FCC kickback scheme that gives telco’s a portion of the fees generated from every inbound call to an Iowa number. So when you call the AllFreeCalls phone number, a portion of any long distance fees you are paying go to the company. The kickback is apparently authorized via the Universal Service Fund. These kickbacks are enough on average to more than cover the international outbound calling fees.
Arrington admits that he hasn't quite wrapped his head around how this works. I'd be surprised (and dismayed) if it were allowed to continue for long -- that's really not what the USF is for!


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The Army's Counterinsurgency Manual

The US Military's counterinsurgency manual is getting a lot of play now that its main author, Gen. Petraeus, has been put in charge of forces in Iraq. I've only skimmed it, but am intrigued that it has an entire appendix on social network analysis.

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The Goddard Space Center and Section 508

The Goddard Space Center has some surprisingly strong and clear guidelines for testing and designing websites for Section 508 compliance.

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Thursday, January 11, 2007

Reading :: On Bullshit

On Bullshit
by Harry G. Frankfurt

This thin monograph, based on a 1986 paper, examines the concept of "bullshit" to attempt a definition. It's unclear how tongue-in-cheek the monograph is, but if we take it at face value, we can see it as a capsule of some of the problems and conflicts going on in philosophy.

What I mean by that is that the book is particularly concerned with truth-value and nailing down concepts in relationship to it. Frankfurt claims that "bullshit" is not lying, since liars are fundamentally concerned with truth and their relationship to it, but "bullshitters" aren't; the essence of bullshit is indifference to the truth. Furthermore, Frankfurt avers that
the contemporary proliferation of bullshit also has deeper sources, in various forms of skepticism which deny that we can have any reliable access to an objective reality, and which therefore reject the possibility of knowing how things really are. These "antirealist" doctrines undermine confidence in the value of disinterested efforts to determine what is true and what is false, and even in the intelligibility of the notion of objective inquiry. (pp.64-65)
Frankfurt is of course describing -- at least in part -- postmodernism and its variants. He goes on to claim that one response to the postmodernist crisis is to turn to sincerity, i.e., being true to oneself because one cannot find objective truth. He punctures this conceit and concludes that "insofar as this is the case, sincerity itself is bullshit" (p.67).

Well. This last gloss -- it appears in the last few pages of the book -- tells us a lot about the rest of the book. Frankfurt provides no cites here, performs a sweeping generalization of the postmodernist position (although he doesn't use the term "postmodernism"), and lumps a lot of separate inquiries into a straw argument. I didn't find this gloss to be particularly convincing or fair.

I also didn't find the author's methodology to be particularly convincing. Ask a linguist what "bullshit" (or any other term) means and she will point to how the word is enacted differently in different regions and communities. Ask a phenomenologist and he will conduct an empirical inquiry to demonstrate relative coherence in the concept's use within a given group. Ask a Deleuzian philosopher or an actor-network theorist and she will trace the associations that are made between the term and other relative terms. In each of these investigations -- some of which are empirical investigations -- we see some recognition that terms and concepts exist within human activity and in relation to other terms and concepts. But Frankfurt, who empasizes the importance of objective inquiry, avoids any empirical study of how the term and concept are used, contenting himself with examples from Wittgenstein's letters and thought experiments from daily life in order to nail down the "essence" of the term.

For an empiricist rhetorician like myself, that seems like a rather odd way to perform an objective inquiry -- unless an "objective inquiry" is as self-contained and solipsistic as the enterprise of "sincerity" that the author derides in his final pages.

Reading :: God's Debris

God's Debris
by Scott Adams

Imagine that you're eighteen and in your first semester at the University of X. You've made some fast friends in your dorm, and one night, after watching the midnight film in the student union and drinking too much Mountain Dew, you hang out and talk philosophy. You warm up over head-scratchers such as "If God is all-powerful, can He create a weight so heavy He can't lift it?" Whoa. Talk about expanding your consciousness.

God's Debris is like one of those late-night bull sessions that seem so profound when you're eighteen and so embarassing when you're thirty-five. Scott Adams, best known for his Dilbert comic strip, cops to this in the introduction, sort of:
The target audience of God's Debris is people who enjoy having their brains spun around inside their skulls. After a certain age most people are uncomfortable with new ideas. That certain age varies by person, but if you're over fifty-five (mentally), you probably won't enjoy this thought experiment. ... If you're twenty-three, your odds of liking it are very good. (pp.ix-x)

The book is designed as a dialogue, exactly like those dorm room dialogues, but between a delivery driver and a mysterious old man who discuss the nature of God, reality, and so forth. And it works exactly like those bull sessions, which is to say that it draws its apparent power by oscillating between absolute and relative statements to create the illusion of profundity. For instance, the main character argues that
words such as dimension and field and infinity are nothing more than conveniences for mathematicians and scientists. They are not descriptions of reality, yet we accept them as such because everyone is sure someone else knows what the words mean. (p.21)

But earlier the character intones that "'only probability is inexplicable'," and he uses probability as the uncontested, absolute bedrock for most of the rest of the discussion, as if probability is not an abstraction or "convenience" in the same way that the other concepts are. The dialogue is littered with examples like this one. For instance, after claiming that human beings are not equipped to understand God or judge His motivations, the character confidently claims that the only challenge that could interest God would be destroying Himself. (This notion gives the book its title.)

Reading the book and tracking its claims is like trying to get rid of that bump in the carpet: Adams pushes down on one spot, and it goes flat, but the bump appears somewhere else. It is this rapid circulation -- this process of taking one abstraction as a bedrock truth in order to challenge other abstractions -- that gives the dialogue an appearance of motion when there actually is none. Stances such as solipsism and logical positivism are tried on when convenient and abandoned just as quickly. So Adams' target audience -- "people who enjoy having their brains spun around inside their skulls" -- should be fairly happy with the circular motion of the book's argument.

I don't think I'm giving anything away by noting that the book essentially concludes that the geek will inherit the earth -- the introvert who is more interested in ideas than people, the skeptic who enjoys abstract logic puzzles, the person who has to be given basic lessons in human interaction (pp.105-121). That's hardly surprising for anyone who has read Dilbert. But part of the charm of Dilbert is that the character is self-effacing and put-upon by the world's vagaries. That self-effacement is gone here. Imagine Dilbert as Plato and you'll get the thrust of this book.

Reading :: Lifehacker

Lifehacker: 88 Tech Tricks to Turbocharge Your Day
By Gina Trapani


Lifehacker is based on the popular blog edited by Trapani, a sort of Hints from Heloise for the knowledge economy set. The blog is terrific, and I've picked up several ideas and examples from it myself. But of course these ideas and examples are fleeting. Will the bright idea of hacking a Yahoo Calendar feature be useful next month? Will this virtual screen software be useful once the next version of OSX comes out? Probably not. For that reason, one would think that a book based on this sort of blog would have the half-life of polonium.

Indeed, many of the tricks and examples in Lifehacker have a short shelf life -- but Trapani has organized these examples around more lasting, strategic principles for managing work in information-saturated and heavily interrupted activities. Principles such as "free up mental RAM," "firewall your attention," and "avoid repetitive tasks" are useful principles, even if the examples that illustrate them won't generally survive after Vista has been released. And Trapani does a good job of pointing to ways that make these hacks last and transfer, such as her attention to plain text todo lists.

The book itself is written in an engaging style; I think most of the book was culled directly from blog posts. If you're interested in lifehacking, but you want the material to be a bit more pulled together than the lifehacker.com blog affords, this book is for you.

Wikinomics

Wikinomics looks like an interesting book:

In the last few years, traditional collaboration—in a meeting room, a conference call, even a convention center—has been superceded by collaborations on an astronomical scale.

Today, encyclopedias, jetliners, operating systems, mutual funds, and many other items are being created by teams numbering in the thousands or even millions. While some leaders fear the heaving growth of these massive online communities, Wikinomics explains how to prosper in a world where new communications technologies are democratizing the creation of value. Anyone who wants to understand the major forces revolutionizing business today should consider Wikinomics their survival kit.



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Wednesday, January 10, 2007

The new blog

I've been blogging my readings on my Reading List blog since June 2003 and my observations of net culture and net work on the Net Work blog since August 2005. But recently I decided to consolidate the entire enterprise here, under one blog hosted off of UT servers. Why? Several reasons:
  • Maintaining two different blogs is unwieldy. I find that I have to crosslink them too much; they interrelate heavily.
  • Consolidating the blogs means that I can blog daily, even when I don't have a book to review.
  • Maintaining your own blogging platform poses several problems in terms of security, data storage, and continuity. I'd rather outsource that work.
  • Posting on Blogger raises the profile of the posts. While migrating the backlog of my Reading List posts, I began getting comments and email from people who had run across posts there -- but who had not seen the same posts on my old blogs.
  • Posting here allows me to link to Amazon products with a referrer account and to take ads. This is a little experiment more than anything: I don't expect to make any real money from the blog, but I am interested in how these sorts of micropayments work.
  • Blogger's search capabilities are superior to Drupal's, meaning that posts can be found faster.
Anyway, here it is, the new blog. As always, email me with comments or suggestions.

... but where is my keypad?

Roger Johansson at 456 Berea Street asks the relevant question about the iPhone. A screen-only phone means a loss of tactile input, which has implications for SMS but also for visually disabled users. I also wonder how greasy the touchpad will get ...

Update: 37Signals' blog raises the same question from a different angle.

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Quickly reviving the iPod

A few days ago I suggested that Samsung and the mobile phone industry were slowly killing the iPod by introducing vastly expanded flash memory that could boost phones' capacity to hold music. Apple's announcement of the iPhone yesterday demonstrates that they have been thinking about this issue much longer and deeper than I have. It seems to be a big step in the right direction, integrating audio and video iPod services, calendaring, address book, web browsing (with wifi), and so forth. The form factor and browsing capability suggest that this device could take sales away from adjacent markets as well, such as the PSP, which Sony's been using to try to break into the handheld entertainment and web browsing market.

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Cliche finder

I think I'll have my students use this...
Submit a few paragraphs to the Finder which searches for clichés listed in the Associated Press Guide to News Writing. Even if your clichés are few and far between, the Cliché Finder will light up the various and sundry overused phrases beyond the shadow of a doubt and shatter your blissful ignorance like a bull in a china shop.


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Monday, January 08, 2007

GM's Volt

Via Slashdot, this report on the new Volt, a plug-in hybrid:
The Volt has a battery-powered electric motor that can run the car for up to 40 city miles on a single charge. Beyond that, a gasoline-powered, one-liter, three-cylinder engine can generate electricity to power the car and replenish the battery, with a range of up to 640 miles, GM said.
It's styled like a Murano.

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San Francisco's municipal wifi

Via Slashdot, this story on the details of S.F.'s new WiFi agreement. This deal bears watching because it might become the model for other municipal agreements.

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Friday, January 05, 2007

Grandma's reading list

Over the break, I visited my parents and my mother, becoming nostalgic, pulled this document out of a file cabinet: my grandmother's reading list.



Sorry about the blurry photo -- my cameraphone is not good at close quarters. The journal lists the books that my grandmother read over her lifetime, and the tabs index the books alphabetically.

When I say "lists the books," that's it: just titles. Not authors, publication information, the date she read them, or any notes on the contents. Still, I was struck that Grandma had her own reading list, and I suddenly felt as if I were carrying on a family tradition that I didn't know we had.

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"Travis Taylor, et al, have written the definitive book on the defense of earth against a potential alien incursion."

Via Instapundit, the book An Introduction to Planetary Defense: A Study of Modern Warfare Applied to Extra-Terrestrial Invasion just sounds fun to read.

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"In Word, Excel and PowerPoint, all of the menus are gone — every one."

Via Slashdot, a discussion of the new interface for Office 2007. Video at the link.

UPDATE: Lifehacker has screenshots.

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Thursday, January 04, 2007

Slowly killing the iPod

Wired's Listening Post argues that Samsung's recent breakthrough in flash memory capacity will put another nail in the iPod's coffin.
As manufacturers start incorporating this memory into devices, a tiny musicphone will be able to hold more data than most desktop computers could only a few years ago. Aside from the interface, the only remaining question at that point is whether cell service carriers will allow these phones the same degree of freedom and versatility that made the computer such a success.

This seems sensible to me. It reminds me of one of the few episodes of The Apprentice that I have watched, in which the two teams competed to create a line of clothing that accommodates mobile technologies. Both teams came up with an item with a smallish pocket "for your iPod or phone." When the judges asked one team which tech would be more important, the team leader replied without hesitation: "The iPod." The judge's scorn was palpable -- appropriately.

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Swearing in with the Koran

Facing criticism for his decision to be sworn into office by placing his hand on a Koran instead of a Bible, Senator-elect Keith Ellison has decided that the Koran in question should be
Thomas Jefferson's copy. That's mostly brilliant. I say "mostly" because, on reflection, the move does not place the Koran in the best theological light: remember how Thomas Jefferson, a Deist, edited the Bible by cutting out all of the supernatural and theological components, and imagine how he must have regarded the Koran as a cultural document rather than a holy book. Still, big points for Ellison's political agility.

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Joi Ito on WoW as project management

In this WoW presentation, Joi Ito argues that World of Warcraft requires and engenders new collaboration and project management skills. Bonnie Nardi has been arguing something similar (see her recent interview with Mark Zachry in Technical Communication Quarterly).

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Liquid methane on Titan

Images from Cassini-Huygens show lakes of liquid methane on Titan. What I like is that the long strip of imagery looks like the Ringworld.
Radar imaging data of large bodies of liquid on Titan

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Wednesday, January 03, 2007

OLPC's Sugar isn't user-tested

Johndan notes that the One Laptop Per Child initiative has not bothered to user-test its new interface. Although the interface does look very cool (see below, from a random Flickr account), some sort of user testing really would have been a good idea.
OLPC ABIWord

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Reading :: The Politics

The Politics
by Aristotle


I'm not a classical scholar by any means, but I'm enjoying reading some classical works lately. Aristotle's Politics is one of them. Although it's rather uneven in parts, what really struck me is how deeply it has influenced later authors, from Machiavelli to Marx. Aristotle's main concern here is constitutions: what kinds of constitutions there are, how to draft them, how to sustain them, and how to avoid common errors. Aristotle was well qualified for this work, having had a hand in several constitutions. He evidently thinks he's better qualified than Plato, since he takes aim at the Republic several times, perhaps unfairly. Nevertheless, it's an interesting read.

"Interesting" doesn't always mean "good." For instance, Aristotle's spirited defense of slavery is not an example of strong reasoning; it seemed like he was just trying to put the issue to bed so that he could get on to other matters. On the other hand, Aristotle's catalogue of types of constitutions, and how each one declines, clearly sets the stage for Machiavelli's parallel discussion in the Discourses; his summary of what each type of constitution values (aristocracy - virtue, oligarchy - wealth, democracy - freedom) is wonderfully concise (p.260). His discussion of how to sustain a tyranny is somewhat similar to Machiavelli's in The Prince. Similarly, his exhaustive discussion of labor and its role in a constitution influenced Marx.

One thing that really struck me was Aristotle's long list of features of democracy -- features that almost all made it into the US Constitution (p.363). And his bias in favor of agrarian people in a democracy (p.368) is echoed in Jefferson's writings. Fascinating!

Aristotle, however, was no democrat per se. In fact, he had a lot of ideas about how to run a state that involved controlling the minutiae of public life, down to the age that men and women should wed (men at 37, women at 18, so they will pass out of childbearing age at about the same time) (pp.441-442). He also wanted to ban "unseemly talk" and porn (p.446).

"Forgot your login? Time for a change."

Via Slashdot, we get these observations from apophenia about ephemeral profiles in social networking among teenagers:
Teens are not dreaming of portability (like so many adults i meet). They are happy to make new accounts on new sites; they enjoy building out profiles. (Part of this could be that they have a lot more time on their hands.) The idea of taking MySpace material to Facebook when they transition is completely foreign. They're going to a new site, they want to start over.

The author speculates that tying social networking to mobile numbers might change things -- but right now, social networking profiles are like clothes, temporary ways to craft temporaryThis attitude contrasts sharply with those of adults, who are more interested in creating coherent online identities.

Although I doubt they meant it in this way, it strikes me that teen behavior here could function as a protective adaptation, alllowing them to avoid the consequences of earlier identity choices. When people try to maintain a coherent online identity, they become accountable to the statements and positions that they take over the course of their life. But if they change accounts -- and identities -- several times in the course of their life, there's no clear trail to follow and it's obvious that their statements are things they are simply trying on.

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Starbucks: Claims and counterclaims on YouTube

Slashdot is reporting on a set of claims and counterclaims between Oxfam and Starbucks currently taking place on YouTube. We hear a lot about the "citizens' media," but this is a fascinating example of how sites like YouTube are becoming the new infrastructure for public relations.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

End-user programming: The Web 2.0 version

A while back, I predicted that the next "Printshop moment" -- the next wave of production to move from the hands of specialists to casual users -- would be end-user programming. One early indication of this movement is in the article Assembling great software: A round-up of eight mashup tools, which describes several tools that casual users can mobilize to build apps from existing web services.

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New tools for the new year

So I've been trying out two new tools for this new year. One, as you can see, is Blogger. My first blog was on Blogger, but I moved it to the CWRL servers because I wanted to have more control over it. But now I'm contemplating moving back to Blogger for various reasons, including the fact that it makes less sense to maintain my own blogging software than it does to let the professionals do it. We'll see how this works.

The other new tool is Flock, the browser based on Firefox. Flock's hook is its integration with web services. So for instance, I can use Flock's interface to manage my bookmarks in del.icio.us, my photos in Flickr, and my blog posts in Blogger, rather than having to (a) manage local versions of each or (b) use the interfaces for each service. I tried Flock about a year ago and it wasn't ready for prime time, but it seems to be doing quite well now.

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Tracks

I've mentioned that Basecamp, currently the pace-setter for web-based collaborative project management, is facing some tough competition from open-source workalike activeCollab as well as potential trouble from Google's acquisition of JotSpot. Here's another possible competitor: Tracks is a GPL'd web application that implements David Allen's Getting Things Done methodology for groups.

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"Social software and learning"

From the UK, an interesting-looking paper on how social software might impact learning. The emphasis on collaboration is appropriate, but they don't cover the vital issues of project and task management that are raised by an increase in collaboration.

Social software and learning: An Opening Education report from Futurelab
By Martin Owen, Lyndsay Grant, Steve Sayers and Keri Facer

Futurelab - Research - Publications - Social software and learning

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