Mobile apps will be replaced by web apps

We're seeing a strong shift toward web-based services on the desktop side, but it's arguably much stronger on the mobile side. This return to thin-client architecture makes a lot of sense for mobile in particular, for many reasons, the most important ones being market- and regulation-related rather than architecture-related.

Summary: The business of making native apps for mobile devices is dying, crushed by a fragmented market and restrictive business practices. The problems are so bad that the mobile web, despite its many technical drawbacks, is now a better way to deliver new functionality to mobiles. I think this will drive a rapid rise in mobile web development, largely replacing the mobile app business. This has huge implications for mobile operators, handset companies, developers, and users.

Mobile Opportunity: Mobile applications, RIP

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